/*	This program produces Appendix Figure D.5 */

***** Set directories 
local dir_clean 	"~/Dropbox/Retirement gaming/clean"
local dir_output 	"~/Dropbox/Retirement gaming/output/dataverse"


use "`dir_clean'/placebo_medbcw.dta", clear


xtile ndep_catplus = ndep, nquantiles(10)

local listcontrols 		= " i.t i.ndep_catplus i.ciiu2 i.ndep_catplus#i.year i.year#i.ciiu2 "  
local listcontrolsfe 	= " i.i i.t i.ndep_catplus i.ciiu2 i.ndep_catplus#i.year i.year#i.ciiu2 "  
	
		
** PLACEBO GROUP EARNINGS (Figure D.4, Panel A)
preserve
replace time_bcw=-5 if time_bcw==-6
keep if empl==1 & prop_mempl>=.6 & ( ciiu2==35 | ciiu2==36 |ciiu2==61 | ciiu2==19 | ciiu2==49 |ciiu2==53 | ciiu==52220 )  
*Normalize wages
sum W if time_bcw==-1
local meanw=r(mean)
g Wz=W/`meanw'
* Age dummies
tab time_bcw, gen(time_bcw_dums)
drop time_bcw_dums5 // drop year before ref age, so everything becomes relative to that
* Regression
reghdfe Wz time_bcw_dums*, absorb(`listcontrols') vce(cluster i)
* Sample size
global n=e(N)
global N=e(N_clust1)
* Coefficients and sd
for any beta sd: gen X = .
forvalues d = 1(1)13 {
	capture qui replace beta = _b[time_bcw_dums`d'] if time_bcw==`d'-6
	capture qui replace sd   = _se[time_bcw_dums`d'] if time_bcw==`d'-6
}
replace beta=0 if time_bcw==-1
replace sd=0 if time_bcw==-1
* Plot the results
collapse beta* sd*, by(time_bcw)
gen sd_top = beta + 1.96*sd	
gen sd_bot = beta - 1.96*sd
gen sd_top10 = beta + 1.645*sd	
gen sd_bot10 = beta - 1.645*sd
twoway rcap sd_top sd_bot time_bcw, ///
	cmissing(n) lwidth(thin) lcolor(navy) xsc(r(-5 7)) xlabel(-5(1)7)  xline(-1,lc(green)) ysc(r(-0.03 .09)) ylabel(-0.03(0.03).09,grid)  ///
	|| rcap sd_top10 sd_bot10 time_bcw, cmissing(n) lwidth(thin) lcolor(navy) xsc(r(-5 7)) ///
	|| scatter beta time_bcw, mcolor(navy) scheme(s1color) lcolor(navy) lpattern(solid) yline(0, lcolor(gs2)) ///
	title("Reported earnings, relative to time -1") note("N=${n}, Individuals=${N}") ///
	legend(off) ytitle("Estimated Coefficients") xtitle("Years Relative to Predicted Start of BCW")  
graph export "`dir_output'/figureD5a.png",  replace 	
restore


** PLACEBO GROUP EARNINGS, with FE (Figure D.4, Panel B)
preserve
replace time_bcw=-5 if time_bcw==-6
keep if empl==1 & prop_mempl>=.6 & (ciiu2==35|ciiu2==36|ciiu2==61|ciiu2==49|ciiu2==19 | ciiu==52220 |ciiu2==53 )   
*Normalize wages
sum W if time_bcw==-1
local meanw=r(mean)
g Wz=W/`meanw'
* Age dummies
tab time_bcw, gen(time_bcw_dums)
drop time_bcw_dums5 // drop year before ref age, so everything becomes relative to that
drop time_bcw_dums1 // drop first event period for ID up to linear trend
* Regression
reghdfe Wz time_bcw_dums*, absorb(`listcontrolsfe') vce(cluster i)
* Sample size
global n=e(N)
global N=e(N_clust1)
* Coefficients and sd
for any beta sd: gen X = .
forvalues d = 1(1)13 {
	capture qui replace beta = _b[time_bcw_dums`d'] if time_bcw==`d'-6
	capture qui replace sd   = _se[time_bcw_dums`d'] if time_bcw==`d'-6
}
replace beta=0 if time_bcw==-1
replace sd=0 if time_bcw==-1
replace beta=0 if time_bcw==-5
replace sd=0 if time_bcw==-5
* Plot the results
collapse beta* sd*, by(time_bcw)
gen sd_top = beta + 1.96*sd	
gen sd_bot = beta - 1.96*sd
gen sd_top10 = beta + 1.645*sd	
gen sd_bot10 = beta - 1.645*sd
twoway rcap sd_top sd_bot time_bcw, ///
	cmissing(n) lwidth(thin) lcolor(navy) xsc(r(-5 7)) xlabel(-5(1)7)  xline(-1,lc(green)) ysc(r(-0.03 .09)) ylabel(-0.03(0.03).09,grid)  ///
	|| rcap sd_top10 sd_bot10 time_bcw, cmissing(n) lwidth(thin) lcolor(navy) xsc(r(-5 7)) ///
	|| scatter beta time_bcw, mcolor(navy) scheme(s1color) lcolor(navy) lpattern(solid) yline(0, lcolor(gs2)) ///
	title("Reported earnings, relative to time -1") note("N=${n}, Individuals=${N}") ///
	legend(off) ytitle("Estimated Coefficients") xtitle("Years Relative to Predicted Start of BCW")  
graph export "`dir_output'/figureD5b.png",  replace 	
restore
 

clear all
	
exit

 
 
